One billion PCs by 2008

Forrester Research has predicted that there will be over one billion PCs in use across the globe by next year and over two million by 2015.

The accelerating demand is caused by advancing technology, lower prices and global demand – while markets in Brazil, Russia, India, and China will account for more than 775 million new PCs by 2015, reported The Inquirer.

However the research firm also notes that vendors will find trading in these emerging markets very different to what they are used to in mature markets. It claims that firm’s will not be able to introduce products on a small scale in order to test the market, as the particular economics of those regions will require injecting volume into the market quickly.

"There is nothing more important to the long-term health of the technology industry and personal technology in particular than the ability to deliver relevant, accessible and affordable technology to the billions of people worldwide who have not been exposed to it," said Simon Yates, Forrester Research vice president and research director. “The industry can probably survive selling incrementally better hardware and software to the people who already have technology in their lives, but the vast majority of growth in the PC and related industries will come from emerging markets.

There are risks. It is safe to assume that life cycles will be longer in emerging markets. Vendors, accustomed to mature markets where the average life cycle is between four and five years, will need to have a deep understanding of how to work in these markets and, with less of a market for replacement PCs, will need to band together to scale production for these emerging regions."